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“No one in this world, so far as I know, has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people.”� —H. L. Mencken
�
H. L. Mencken was wrong.
In this endlessly fascinating book, New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea that has profound implications:�large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant—better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future.
This seemingly counterintuitive notion has endless and major ramifications for how businesses operate, how knowledge is advanced, how economies are (or should be) organized and how we live our daily lives. With seemingly boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, economic behaviorism, artificial intelligence, military history and political theory to show just how this principle operates in the real world.�
Despite the sophistication of his arguments, Surowiecki presents them in a wonderfully entertaining manner. The examples he uses are all down-to-earth, surprising, and fun to ponder. Why is the line in which you’re standing always the longest? Why is it that you can buy a screw anywhere in the world and it will fit a bolt bought ten-thousand miles away? Why is network television so awful? If you had to meet someone in Paris on a specific day but had no way of contacting them, when and where would you meet? Why are there traffic jams? What’s the best way to win money on a game show? Why, when you walk into a convenience store at 2:00 A.M. to buy a quart of orange juice, is it there waiting for you? What do Hollywood mafia movies have to teach us about why corporations exist?
The Wisdom of Crowds is a brilliant but accessible biography of an idea, one with important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, conduct our business, and think about our world.
- Sales Rank: #320801 in Books
- Published on: 2004-05-25
- Released on: 2004-05-25
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.40" h x 1.10" w x 5.80" l, 1.05 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 297 pages
From Publishers Weekly
While our culture generally trusts experts and distrusts the wisdom of the masses, New Yorker business columnist Surowiecki argues that "under the right circumstances, groups are remarkably intelligent, and are often smarter than the smartest people in them." To support this almost counterintuitive proposition, Surowiecki explores problems involving cognition (we're all trying to identify a correct answer), coordination (we need to synchronize our individual activities with others) and cooperation (we have to act together despite our self-interest). His rubric, then, covers a range of problems, including driving in traffic, competing on TV game shows, maximizing stock market performance, voting for political candidates, navigating busy sidewalks, tracking SARS and designing Internet search engines like Google. If four basic conditions are met, a crowd's "collective intelligence" will produce better outcomes than a small group of experts, Surowiecki says, even if members of the crowd don't know all the facts or choose, individually, to act irrationally. "Wise crowds" need (1) diversity of opinion; (2) independence of members from one another; (3) decentralization; and (4) a good method for aggregating opinions. The diversity brings in different information; independence keeps people from being swayed by a single opinion leader; people's errors balance each other out; and including all opinions guarantees that the results are "smarter" than if a single expert had been in charge. Surowiecki's style is pleasantly informal, a tactical disguise for what might otherwise be rather dense material. He offers a great introduction to applied behavioral economics and game theory.
Copyright � Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
From Bookmarks Magazine
Surowiecki first developed his ideas for Wisdom of Crowds in his “Financial Page” column of The New Yorker. Many critics found his premise to be an interesting twist on the long held notion that Americans generally question the masses and eschew groupthink. “A socialist might draw some optimistic conclusions from all of this,” wrote The New York Times. “But Surowiecki’s framework is decidedly capitalist.” Some reviewers felt that the academic language and business speak decreased the impact of the argument. Still, it’s a thought-provoking, timely book: the TV studio audience of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire guesses correctly 91 percent of the time, compared to “experts” who guess only 65 percent correctly. Keep up the good work, comrades.
Copyright � 2004 Phillips & Nelson Media, Inc.
Review
What the crowd is saying about The Wisdom of Crowds:
“The Wisdom of Crowds is dazzling. It is one of those books that will turn your world upside down. It’s an adventure story, a manifesto, and the most brilliant book on business, society, and everyday life that I’ve read in years.”
—Malcolm Gladwell, author of The Tipping Point
"Most crowds of readers would agree that Jim Surowiecki is one of the most interesting journalists working today. Now he has written a book that will exceed even their expectations. Anyone open to rethinking their most basic assumptions--people who enjoyed The Tipping Point, say--will love this book."
--Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball.
“This book should be in every thinking businessperson’s library. Without exception. At a time when corporate leaders have shown they’re not always deserving of our trust, James Surowiecki has brilliantly revealed that we can trust each other. That we count. That our collective effort is far more important than the lofty predictions of those CEO-kings we have worshipped for too long.”
—Po Bronson, author of What Should I Do With My Life?
“Jim Surowiecki has done the near impossible. He’s taken what in other hands would be a dense and difficult subject and given us a book that is engaging, surprising, and utterly persuasive. The Wisdom of Crowds will change the way you think about markets, economics, and a large swatch of everyday life.”
—Joe Nocera, editorial director of Fortune magazine and author of A Piece of the Action.
“It has become increasingly recognized that the average opinions of groups is frequently more accurate than most individuals in the group. As a special case, economists have spoken of the role of markets in assembling dispersed information. The author has written a most interesting survey of the many studies in this area and discussed the limits as well as the achievements of self-organization.”
—Kenneth Arrow, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and Professor of Economics (Emeritus), Stanford University
Most helpful customer reviews
5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Get answers to many of life's questions
By Bill Tillman
I am 83 yrs old and have had many unanswered questions in my life. This book factually answers a number of those questions. The one it answered resoundingly was "who should vote". If you read this book you will know the answer! I have read a great deal of human history -- Mitchner, Steinbeck, Hemmingway, Tolstoy & Eric Hoffer among others. History is what people did as the result of an action, mainly by governments and/or religions. The other area of my study is religions, by this, I mean what religious leaders have done to people in the mane of "God".
What I have studied are the subjects that give you knowledge that governments and religions have controlled for their benefit.
It is a hard read at points but well worth it!!!!
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Mixed bag
By Listo
Good insights, but little consistency or follow-through. Evidence is presented that private information is good for predictions at a group level. Evidence is also presented that utility-maximizing, self-intetested economic actors ("free-riders," those most in-line with the homo economicus of neoclassical theory) destroy cooperation and therefore diminish group-level outcomes. This suggests an overarching conclusion, that society would be better off acting on the aggregated private information of its members so long as they use that information for the good of society. That would be a very interesting assertion, one challenging to both socialists and libertarians, and one that could provoke new and important research. Yet that assertion is never made. The insights in this book are valuable, but never tied together in a coherent whole. Instead, markets and prosociality are both lauded in predictable Third Way triumphalisms. Worth the read, but consider the ways the evidence do and do not gell with the arguments when you do read it.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Hoped for more from this book
By iajan
I was disappointed. Although intriguing ideas and experiments were presented, I think the author's connection from the experiments to real-world instances was over-stated. Many of the experiments were tightly controlled and thus one-dimensional; I am not convinced that the correlation to messy life is as direct. In some ways, he alludes to this in writing about small groups, committees, etc. In that section, he writes about how a group can be hi-jacked by a member of the team, or how a group lacking diversity -- or openness to a consideration of alternative views -- can be led away from "right" or "good" decision-making.
So what is the point? To know that a diverse group has the potential for an aggregate "wise" decision is okay. But real useful information was missing: how can you assess whether a group is a good one, could a leader maximize the potential of a group, can a group member who understands these things work effectively within a group that by engrained habit isn't functioning to its greatest capacity? I initially ordered this book because I wanted to make sense of contentious work group; it wasn't of much use beyond "well, that was sort of interesting."
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